Think about the last time you were part of a decision making group and you were kind of the odd one out. Even better, think of a time when you were one of those in the mainstream and felt the decision about to be made was absolutely the correct one.

Think about the last time you were part of a decision making group and you were kind of the odd one out. Even better, think of a time when you were one of those in the mainstream and felt the decision about to be made was absolutely the correct one.

Drucker points out that a decision is a choice among risky alternatives. None of us can tell the future so it’s impossible to be certain in advance—even though most groups and organizations encourage, and even pressure, group members to be confident in their decisions. In fact, in Thinking, Fast And Slow, Daniel Kahneman, speaking on the cognitive bias of overconfidence, writes, “…Doubts about the wisdom of the planned move are gradually suppressed and eventually come to be treated as evidence of flawed loyalty to the team…the suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice.”

In The Effective Executive, Drucker offers a way to avoid the overconfidence that infects decision and makes them riskier than they need to be. Paraphrasing, his prescription for what constitutes effective (good) decisions is:

• Start with opinions, or hypotheses, which must be tested before they can be counted as facts. It’s kind of like the old saying, “Don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.” In this case it’s, “If you’re going to bring me an opinion, you’ll be on the hook to test your opinion to prove it as fact.”
• As a test, the group should ask itself, “What would the facts have to be to make opinion X the correct one?”
• Be ever vigilant not to commit the sin of confirmation bias and only find facts that support a foregone conclusion.
• Above all, effective decisions are generated by a clash of divergent opinions—not groupthink.

So, next time you’re in a decision-making meeting maybe the single best thing you could do would be to take one small step and make sure everyone expresses his or her opinion—before the train leaves the station.

Jim

Lucavìa
gojimlucas@lucavia.com
www.lucavia.com
(925) 980-7871

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